My prediction of Trump rejecting the election outcome and inciting violence was accurate
The Trump Insurrection of January 6 was foreseeable. I know that because I saw it coming, as did many others. On October 11, 2020, I predicted that 60 days of chaos would follow the election and made several predictions. Some of them were accurate, perhaps because Trump himself seemed to know he would likely lose the election long before election day. His support for right-wing crazies and violence was also not a state secret.
Challenged election results
Picking up on Trump’s own predictions of election fraud, I suggested challenges were likely:
It is now a near certainty that Republicans will challenge election results even if the Democratic ticket wins in a landslide. . . . Expect challenges to millions of votes cast by mail. Also expect allegations of ballot-box stuffing, stolen ballots, and more. All this is likely to last at least a month and perhaps longer if Trump declines to concede defeat.
Rioting and violence
The assault on the Capitol was less foreseeable. I’m not sure anyone saw it coming in October 2020. The possibility of rioting and violence, however, was a different story. I wrote:
Members of Proud Boys and Boogaloo may not vote themselves but will be out in force if Trump suffers a colossal loss. Riots and looting could be widespread, especially if Trump expresses support or encouragement for it. Protests against election results could get violent if they conflict with anticipated celebrations of Biden’s win.
The demise of the Republican party
I greatly overestimated the degree to which Trump’s progressively bizarre behavior would have on the Republican vote. He ended up with more than 74 million ballots.
My prediction was that the Republican party would suffer because of Trump. I saw signs that I interpreted as the start of the Republican party imploding:
The Republican party is already starting to realize the 2020 Trump campaign’s damage to their party. A new generation of Republicans will step up to steer the party away from the worst, most controversial Trump policies. It is far from clear that they will be successful. Will those disgusted with Trumpism but not ready to move left establish a new centrist party?
Obviously, this third prediction is still playing out. A group of Never Trump Republicans is now forming a new party. If a shared opposition to Trump is all this party has going for it, expect this effort to fail.
Clouds in the crystal ball
I was frankly surprised that some of my predictions proved as accurate as they were. Not all of them were. A read of the whole article suggests that my crystal ball wasn’t quite as clear as it could have been.